State-Level High School Completion Rates: Concepts, Measures, and Trends (John Warren, University of Minnesota, June 2006)

John Warren of the University of Minnesota recently developed a new method of calculating the on-time graduation rate. His formula—called the estimated completion rate— differs from others by taking into account students who move in and out of states and adjusting for the enrollment bulge at the ninth grade. He finds the following:

• nationally and in 41 states, school completion rates declined between 1975 and 2002;

• by 2002, 72 percent of students were on track to graduate on time, compared to 76 percent in 1975; and, 
  
  
• five states had graduation rates below 60 percent in 2002 (South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and Tennessee).