Dropout Rates in the United States: 2002 and 2003 (NCES, 2006)

This NCES report examines the national event dropout, status dropout and status completion rates using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), the Common Core of Data (CCD), and the annual GED Testing Service statistical reports.

Event Dropout Rate: Measures the percentage of students leaving high school each year without a diploma. Findings:

• four out of 100 students enrolled in high school in October 2002 left school before October 2003 without completing a high school program;

• despite year-to-year fluctuations, there has been no overall pattern of increase or decrease in event dropout rates since 1990, and there is no measurable difference in this rate for males and females; and, 

• in 2003, students living in low-income families were approximately five times more likely than their peers in high-income families to be event dropouts.

Status Dropouts Rate: Measures the percentage of 16- to 24-year-olds not in school and without a diploma. Findings:

• in October 2003, approximately 3.6 million 16- through 24-year-olds were not enrolled in high school and had not earned a high school diploma or alternative credential such as the GED. This number represents 9.9 percent of the 36 million people of that age group in the United States in 2003;
  
  
• status dropout rates declined between 1972 and 2003, from 14.6 percent to 9.9 percent;
  
  
• males were more likely to be status dropouts; and, 
• over the past 30 years, the difference between white and black status dropout rates has narrowed. This narrowing took place during the 1970s and 1980s. Between 1990 and 2003, there was no measurable change in the gap. The percentage of Hispanics ages 16-24 who were dropouts was consistently higher than blacks and whites from 1972-2003.

Status Completion Rate: Measures the percentage of 18- to 24-year-olds who have a diploma or equivalent credential. Findings:

• in 2003, 87.1 percent of 18- through 24-year olds not enrolled in high school had received a high school diploma or equivalency credential;

• since 1990, the rate has shown no consistent trend, with a low of 84.8 percent in 1998 and a high of 87.1 percent in 2003;

• NCES estimates that, in 2003, 79.6 percent of 18- through 24-year olds held a regular diploma (not a GED or equivalent); and, 

• status completion rates by race/ethnicity: Asian Pacific Islanders, 94.9 percent; whites, 91.9 percent; blacks, 85 percent; Hispanics, 69.2 percent.